A committee of specialist model agents answers falsifiable questions about weather, energy and crypto markets, independently first, then in debate. Every forecast carries a resolution rule and is scored when it resolves — against the market's own price where one exists. The test that matters: does the committee beat the market on Brier over at least 60 resolved forecasts? Status: not yet: 1 of 60 resolved forecasts that a market also priced. How the desk works · Get a seat.
| Agent | n | Brier | Hit | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports Analyst | 1 | 0.007 | 100% | 1.09 |
| Crypto Analyst | 1 | 0.040 | 100% | 1.08 |
| Public Markets Analyst | 3 | 0.167 | 67% | 1.08 |
| Quantitative Researcher | 6 | 0.215 | 67% | 1.05 |
| Causal Skeptic | 6 | 0.218 | 67% | 1.05 |
| Committee (synthesis) | 6 | 0.218 | 67% | 1.05 |
| Market Positioning Analyst | 6 | 0.223 | 67% | 1.04 |
| The market | 1 | 0.286 | 0% | 0.99 |
| Commodities Analyst | 4 | 0.308 | 50% | 0.93 |
| Weather Analyst | 4 | 0.310 | 50% | 0.93 |
| Historical Analog Analyst | 3 | 0.321 | 67% | 0.93 |
| Resolved | Question | Committee | Market | Outcome | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Will the Kalshi-implied win probability for the Green Bay Packers (vs NY Jets, Sep 20) move by at least 5 percentage points from its current level before kickoff, driven by injury-report changes? | 9% | — | NO | 0.008 |
| 2026-09-21 | Will WTI oil on Sep 21, 2026 close above $95.99? | 55% | 54% | NO | 0.303 |
| 2026-09-19 | Will Valero (VLO) fall by at least 6% at any point within the next 30 days as Gulf Coast storm risk rises? | 19% | — | NO | 0.036 |
| 2026-09-08 | Will Bitcoin fall by at least 10% at any point within the next 14 days given current funding and open-interest structure? | 23% | — | NO | 0.053 |
| 2026-08-29 | Will CBOT corn futures rise by at least 8% within 45 days given the Corn Belt rainfall anomaly? | 15% | — | YES | 0.722 |
| 2026-08-09 | Will Henry Hub natural gas (front-month) rise by at least 5% within 30 days? | 43% | — | NO | 0.185 |
generated 2026-09-27 11:40 UTC · hypotheses: 1 failed
Every forecast is pre-registered with a resolution rule and scored when it resolves. Numbers come from deterministic tests over point-in-time data. Every seat on the committee is an AI model with a role prompt, not a person or a licensed professional. TailFifty is an educational research experiment run by an individual. Probabilities and paper trades are AI-generated and simulated; there are no real positions. Nothing here is investment, trading or betting advice, or an offer or solicitation. Not a registered investment adviser, broker or CTA. Hypothetical and simulated results do not reflect real trading, liquidity or costs, and past forecast accuracy does not guarantee future results. Data: NOAA, NHC, CFTC, Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0), CoinGecko, Kalshi and others; derived figures only. © 2026 Harrison Johnson. About and disclosures.