Tailfifty

The ledger

Where TailFifty started.

A $50 Kalshi account. Every bet posted, win or lose. The hit rate held above 60%. The closing line said the bets had no edge. The tools that proved the luck became the product. The ledger stays up, unedited.

ILedger

1
Win
Outcome+8%
UnderpricedCrypto
2
Win
Outcome+18%
UnderpricedMentions
3
Win
Outcome+217%
UnderpricedMentions
4
Win
Outcome+158%
EmotionalSports
5
Win
Outcome+52%
EmotionalSports
6
Win
Outcome+76%
EmotionalSports
7
Win
Outcome+67%
EmotionalSports
8
Win
Outcome+109%
UnderpricedSports
9
Win
Outcome+368%
UnderpricedSports
10
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnderpricedMentions
11
Win
Outcome+53%
UnderpricedCrypto
—
Open
Outcome−21%
UnrecordedCrypto
—
Open
Outcome+80%
UnrecordedCrypto
12
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedCulture
—
Open
Outcome+25%
UnrecordedPolitics
—
Open
Outcome+4%
UnrecordedCulture
—
Open
Outcome−10%
UnrecordedPolitics
—
Open
Outcome−24%
UnrecordedCulture
—
Open
Outcome−26%
UnrecordedCulture
—
Open
Outcome−72%
UnrecordedCulture
13
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
14
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedCulture
15
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
16
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
17
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
18
Win
Outcome+22%
UnrecordedSports
19
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
20
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
21
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
22
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
23
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
24
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
25
Win
Outcome+44%
UnrecordedSports
26
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
27
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
28
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
29
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
30
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
31
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
32
Win
Outcome+18%
UnrecordedSports
33
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedMentions
34
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedCrypto
35
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedMentions
—
Closed
Outcome+255%
UnrecordedPolitics
36
Win
Outcome+1149%
UnrecordedSports
37
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
38
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
39
Win
Outcome+11%
UnrecordedSports
—
Closed
Outcome+34%
UnrecordedPolitics
40
Win
Outcome+32%
UnrecordedSports
41
Win
Outcome+21%
UnrecordedCrypto
—
Closed
Outcome−61%
UnrecordedCrypto
42
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
43
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
44
Win
Outcome+137%
UnrecordedSports
45
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
46
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
47
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
48
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedMentions
49
Win
Outcome+21%
UnrecordedSports
50
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedCrypto
51
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedCrypto
52
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
53
Win
Outcome+64%
UnrecordedMentions
54
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedMentions
55
Win
Outcome+69%
UnrecordedMentions
56
Win
Outcome+28%
UnrecordedEconomics
57
Win
Outcome+9%
UnrecordedCrypto
58
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
59
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
60
Win
Outcome+30%
UnrecordedSports
61
Win
Outcome+6%
UnrecordedSports
62
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
63
Win
Outcome+13%
UnrecordedSports
64
Win
Outcome+1563%
UnrecordedSports
65
Win
Outcome+13%
UnrecordedSports
66
Win
Outcome+29%
UnrecordedEconomics
67
Win
Outcome+193%
UnrecordedSports
68
Win
Outcome+26%
UnrecordedSports
69
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
70
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
71
Win
Outcome+35%
UnrecordedSports
72
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
73
Win
Outcome+26%
UnrecordedCrypto
74
Win
Outcome+67%
UnrecordedSports
75
Win
Outcome+64%
UnrecordedSports
76
Win
Outcome+17%
UnrecordedSports
—
Closed
Outcome+0%
UnrecordedSports
77
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
78
Win
Outcome+132%
UnrecordedSports
79
Win
Outcome+316%
UnrecordedSports
80
Win
Outcome+34%
UnrecordedSports
81
Win
Outcome+27%
UnrecordedSports
82
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
83
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
—
Closed
Outcome−21%
UnrecordedEconomics
84
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedEconomics
85
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
86
Win
Outcome+30%
UnrecordedSports
87
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
88
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
89
Win
Outcome+78%
UnrecordedSports
90
Win
Outcome+26%
UnrecordedSports
91
Win
Outcome+245%
UnrecordedSports
92
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
93
Win
Outcome+28%
UnrecordedSports
94
Win
Outcome+9%
UnrecordedCrypto
95
Win
Outcome+118%
UnrecordedCrypto
96
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedCrypto
97
Win
Outcome+35%
UnrecordedCrypto
98
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedCrypto
99
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedCrypto
100
Win
Outcome+193%
UnrecordedCrypto
101
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedCrypto
102
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
—
Closed
Outcome+412%
UnrecordedSports
103
Win
Outcome+204%
UnrecordedSports
104
Win
Outcome+13%
UnrecordedSports
105
Win
Outcome+59%
UnrecordedSports
106
Win
Outcome+23%
UnrecordedSports
107
Win
Outcome+17%
UnrecordedSports
108
Win
Outcome+12%
UnrecordedSports
109
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
110
Win
Outcome+26%
UnrecordedCrypto
111
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
112
Win
Outcome+15%
UnrecordedSports
113
Win
Outcome+12%
UnrecordedSports
114
Win
Outcome+17%
UnrecordedSports
115
Win
Outcome+16%
UnrecordedSports
116
Win
Outcome+30%
UnrecordedSports
117
Win
Outcome+19%
UnrecordedSports
118
Win
Outcome+19%
UnrecordedSports
119
Win
Outcome+17%
UnrecordedSports
120
Win
Outcome+15%
UnrecordedSports
121
Win
Outcome+7%
UnrecordedSports
122
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
123
Win
Outcome+37%
UnrecordedSports
124
Win
Outcome+47%
UnrecordedSports
125
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
126
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
127
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
128
Win
Outcome+37%
UnrecordedSports
129
Win
Outcome+375%
UnrecordedSports
130
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
131
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
132
Win
Outcome+27%
UnrecordedSports
133
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
134
Win
Outcome+1327%
UnrecordedSports
135
Win
Outcome+20%
UnrecordedSports
136
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
137
Win
Outcome+16%
UnrecordedSports
138
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
139
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
140
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
141
Win
Outcome+16%
UnrecordedSports
142
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
143
Win
Outcome+245%
UnrecordedSports
144
Win
Outcome+49%
UnrecordedSports
145
Win
Outcome+49%
UnrecordedSports
146
Win
Outcome+43%
UnrecordedSports
147
Win
Outcome+23%
UnrecordedSports
148
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
149
Win
Outcome+174%
UnrecordedSports
150
Win
Outcome+284%
UnrecordedSports
151
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
152
Win
Outcome+6%
UnrecordedSports
153
Win
Outcome+67%
UnrecordedCulture
154
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
155
Win
Outcome+26%
UnrecordedSports
156
Win
Outcome+22%
UnrecordedSports
157
Win
Outcome+284%
UnrecordedSports
158
Win
Outcome+20%
UnrecordedSports
159
Win
Outcome+85%
UnrecordedSports
160
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
161
Win
Outcome+20%
UnrecordedSports
162
Win
Outcome+29%
UnrecordedSports
163
Win
Outcome+12%
UnrecordedSports
164
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
165
Win
Outcome+59%
UnrecordedMentions
166
Win
Outcome+16%
UnrecordedSports
167
Win
Outcome+24%
UnrecordedSports
168
Win
Outcome+10%
UnrecordedSports
169
Win
Outcome+19%
UnrecordedSports
170
Win
Outcome+45%
UnrecordedSports
171
Win
Outcome+23%
UnrecordedSports
172
Win
Outcome+19%
UnrecordedSports
173
Win
Outcome+62%
UnrecordedSports
174
Win
Outcome+30%
UnrecordedSports
175
Win
Outcome+62%
UnrecordedSports
176
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
177
Win
Outcome+22%
UnrecordedSports
178
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
179
Win
Outcome+30%
UnrecordedSports
180
Win
Outcome+11%
UnrecordedSports
181
Win
Outcome+53%
UnrecordedSports
182
Win
Outcome+12%
UnrecordedSports
183
Win
Outcome+29%
UnrecordedSports
184
Win
Outcome+62%
UnrecordedSports
185
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
186
Win
Outcome+12%
UnrecordedSports
187
Win
Outcome+53%
UnrecordedSports
188
Win
Outcome+223%
UnrecordedSports
189
Win
Outcome+12%
UnrecordedSports
190
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
191
Win
Outcome+23%
UnrecordedSports
192
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
193
Win
Outcome+20%
UnrecordedSports
194
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
195
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
196
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
197
Win
Outcome+78%
UnrecordedMentions
198
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
199
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
200
Win
Outcome+90%
UnrecordedSports
201
Win
Outcome+85%
UnrecordedSports
202
Win
Outcome+75%
UnrecordedSports
203
Win
Outcome+67%
UnrecordedSports
204
Win
Outcome+57%
UnrecordedSports
205
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
206
Win
Outcome+72%
UnrecordedSports
207
Win
Outcome+62%
UnrecordedSports
208
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
209
Win
Outcome+57%
UnrecordedSports
210
Win
Outcome+57%
UnrecordedSports
211
Win
Outcome+90%
UnrecordedSports
212
Win
Outcome+72%
UnrecordedSports
213
Win
Outcome+62%
UnrecordedSports
214
Win
Outcome+34%
UnrecordedSports
215
Win
Outcome+41%
UnrecordedSports
216
Win
Outcome+26%
UnrecordedSports
217
Win
Outcome+35%
UnrecordedSports
218
Win
Outcome+43%
UnrecordedPolitics
219
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
220
Win
Outcome+17%
UnrecordedSports
221
Win
Outcome+45%
UnrecordedSports
222
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
223
Win
Outcome+144%
UnrecordedSports
224
Win
Outcome+29%
UnrecordedSports
225
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
226
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
227
Win
Outcome+78%
UnrecordedSports
228
Win
Outcome+57%
UnrecordedSports
229
Win
Outcome+67%
UnrecordedSports
230
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
231
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
232
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
233
Win
Outcome+78%
UnrecordedSports
234
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
235
Win
Outcome+62%
UnrecordedSports
236
Win
Outcome+16%
UnrecordedSports
237
Win
Outcome+64%
UnrecordedSports
238
Win
Outcome+72%
UnrecordedSports
239
Win
Outcome+57%
UnrecordedSports
240
Win
Outcome+16%
UnrecordedSports
241
Loss
Outcome−100%
UnrecordedSports
242
Win
Outcome+30%
UnrecordedSports
243
Win
Outcome+34%
UnrecordedSports
244
Win
Outcome+47%
UnrecordedSports

IIAnalytics

Outcome

258
Win151
Loss93
Open8
Closed6

Wins by category

151
Sports131
Mentions6
Crypto10
Politics1
Culture1
Economics2

Win rate

Sports131/209(63%)
Mentions6/11(55%)
Crypto10/17(59%)
Politics1/1(100%)
Culture1/3(33%)
Economics2/3(67%)

Win rate

62%

Return

+17%

Avg win

+85%

Record

151–93

IIILatest Note

Week 15: The full ledger is in — every settled bet since June, pulled straight from the exchange export, not memory. The number that matters is the hit rate, and it has held above 60% across a few hundred markets I knew nothing about. The goal is still not to look smart or sell picks. It is to make small, public mistakes and learn from them. Lesson so far: tiny bets make bad judgment visible without making it expensive, and a long enough ledger makes luck hard to hide behind.

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∞TailFifty

Past personal positions, posted for the record. Not picks. Educational experiment only; not investment, trading or betting advice. Event contracts can lose 100% of stake. 18+. Availability varies by state. © 2026 Harrison Johnson.

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