Tailfifty desk
424,069 observationssnapshot 2026-10-15Registry

NFL, scored against the line

Each week the committee argues up to three of the most contested games. The Kalshi price at the moment of the question is the bar. The final score grades both. How the desk works

Games scored
11
9 with a Kalshi price
Committee BrierBrier score How wrong a probability was, squared. Say 70% and it happens: (0.7 − 1)² = 0.09. Say 70% and it doesn't: 0.49. Lower is better; always saying 50% scores 0.25, so anything above 0.25 is worse than a coin flip. glossary
0.261
same games as the market column · 0.25 is a coin flip
Market BrierMarket Brier The same squared error, but for the Kalshi price at the moment the question was asked. It is the bar: beating it means knowing something the price did not. glossary
0.329
9 priced games
Right side of 50%
6 of 11

This week

Scored

QuestionCommitteeMarket at askResultBrier · market
Will the Atlanta Falcons beat the Baltimore Ravens at home on October 12, 2026?37%62%No · ATL lost by 70.138 · 0.378
Will the New Orleans Saints beat the Minnesota Vikings at home on October 11, 2026?45%45%No · NO lost by 100.205 · 0.198
Will the Green Bay Packers cover +2.5 against the Chicago Bears on October 11, 2026?54%—Yes · GB won by 240.212
Will the Green Bay Packers beat the Chicago Bears at home on October 11, 2026?56%45%Yes · GB won by 240.196 · 0.308
Will the Dallas Cowboys beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home on October 9, 2026?67%84%No · DAL lost by 80.449 · 0.697
Will the New Orleans Saints beat the Atlanta Falcons at home on October 6, 2026?53%56%No · NO lost by 210.276 · 0.308
Will the San Francisco 49ers cover -3 against the Denver Broncos on October 4, 2026?44%—Yes · SF won by 100.314
Will the San Francisco 49ers beat the Denver Broncos at home on October 4, 2026?57%57%Yes · SF won by 100.185 · 0.181
Will the Houston Texans beat the Dallas Cowboys at home on October 4, 2026?57%57%No · HOU lost by 40.331 · 0.331
Will the Cleveland Browns beat the Pittsburgh Steelers at home on October 2, 2026?41%43%Yes · CLE won by 30.348 · 0.331
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Minnesota Vikings at home on September 27, 2026?47%48%No · TB lost by 70.221 · 0.226

What the game table says

700 games since 2024, 68 with a Kalshi price the day before. The miner tests every pre-kickoff feature against margin, win, and beating the line. Form and rest show up first. The market-beating targets need a season of prices.

  • promisingHome form predicts win same-dayform_home → home_win · effect 0.013 · n 518
  • promisingForm differential predicts home winform_diff → home_win · effect 0.009 · n 518
  • promisingHome form predicts margin same-dayform_home → home_margin · effect 0.327 · n 518
  • promisingAway form tightens home marginform_away → home_margin · effect -0.246 · n 518

Full library · features: rest_home, rest_away, rest_diff, form_home, form_away, form_diff, inj_out_home, inj_out_away, inj_out_diff, inj_q_home, inj_q_away, line_move, kalshi_home_24h, espn_spread_home, espn_total

How a game is argued

  1. Each night the desk reads Kalshi's game markets for games kicking off in the next four days and picks the prices nearest 50%, up to three games a week.
  2. The seated analysts (three to five, chosen by the gate) each pull the teams' series: form, rest, injuries out, the line. Code runs the tests. Since 2026-10-02 the seats do not see the Kalshi price.
  3. Sealed views, then an anonymized argument, then one number computed by calibration-weighted pooling; the portfolio manager explains it.
  4. The window closes at kickoff. Monday morning the final score grades the committee and the market alike.