The committee

The roster: eight domain and method analysts, two reviewers, a risk officer and a portfolio manager. Three to five analysts sit on any one question; the skeptic always does. Scores below are the live record only (retrospective runs excluded) and carry no weight until a seat has five resolved forecasts. One model runs every seat; the mandates differ, the model does not.

Commodities Analyst analyst

Objective: explain price through the physical market. Supply, demand, inventories, storage injections/withdrawals, transportation and basis, futures curve shape (contango/backwardation), seasonality, production and consumption. You think in balances: what tightens or loosens the balance over the horizon, and by how much relative to normal. You distrust price-only arguments. Ask what the curve already implies.

commodities · weather

Scored: 26
Brier: 0.300
Accuracy: 35%
Weight: 0.91

By segment · 48

domain all · horizon all · stage independent	n 26	0.285
domain commodities · horizon all · stage independent	n 26	0.285
domain commodities · horizon 2d · stage independent	n 3	0.329
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 3	0.329
domain all · horizon all · stage revised	n 26	0.300
domain commodities · horizon all · stage revised	n 26	0.300
domain commodities · horizon 2d · stage revised	n 3	0.321
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 3	0.321
domain all · horizon all · stage prior	n 25	0.330
domain commodities · horizon all · stage prior	n 25	0.330
domain commodities · horizon 3d · stage prior	n 4	0.279
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category weather · stage prior	n 1	0.260
domain commodities · horizon 3d · stage independent	n 4	0.349
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category weather · stage independent	n 1	0.325
domain commodities · horizon 3d · stage revised	n 4	0.383
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category weather · stage revised	n 1	0.325
domain commodities · horizon 2d · stage prior	n 2	0.276
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 2	0.276
domain commodities · horizon 1d · stage prior	n 16	0.323
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 12	0.335
domain commodities · horizon 1d · stage independent	n 16	0.276
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 12	0.297
domain commodities · horizon 1d · stage revised	n 16	0.287
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 12	0.309
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category momentum · stage prior	n 4	0.286
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category momentum · stage independent	n 4	0.210
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category momentum · stage revised	n 4	0.220
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 2	0.276
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 2	0.338
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 2	0.412
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category momentum · stage prior	n 1	0.303
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category momentum · stage independent	n 1	0.397
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category momentum · stage revised	n 1	0.384
domain commodities · horizon 5d · stage prior	n 1	0.846
domain commodities · horizon 5d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 1	0.846
domain commodities · horizon 5d · stage independent	n 1	0.176
domain commodities · horizon 5d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 1	0.176
domain commodities · horizon 5d · stage revised	n 1	0.176
domain commodities · horizon 5d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 1	0.176
domain commodities · horizon 4d · stage prior	n 2	0.281
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 1	0.202
domain commodities · horizon 4d · stage independent	n 2	0.221
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 1	0.221
domain commodities · horizon 4d · stage revised	n 2	0.260
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 1	0.250
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category momentum · stage prior	n 1	0.360
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category momentum · stage independent	n 1	0.221
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category momentum · stage revised	n 1	0.270

Weather Analyst analyst

Objective: quantify weather anomalies and forecast *changes*, with confidence intervals, and map them to economic exposure. You care about degree days vs. normal, forecast revisions between issues (what changed since the market last looked), geographic concentration (which states drive demand), and the downstream chain: temperature → heating/cooling demand → power burn → gas; rainfall → yields; wind/storm → refinery outages. You are explicit about forecast skill decaying with lead time.

weather · commodities

Scored: 17
Brier: 0.338
Accuracy: 35%
Weight: 0.87

By segment · 31

domain all · horizon all · stage independent	n 17	0.342
domain commodities · horizon all · stage independent	n 17	0.342
domain commodities · horizon 2d · stage independent	n 1	0.314
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 1	0.314
domain all · horizon all · stage revised	n 17	0.338
domain commodities · horizon all · stage revised	n 17	0.338
domain commodities · horizon 2d · stage revised	n 1	0.281
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 1	0.281
domain all · horizon all · stage prior	n 16	0.377
domain commodities · horizon all · stage prior	n 16	0.377
domain commodities · horizon 1d · stage prior	n 14	0.383
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 12	0.362
domain commodities · horizon 1d · stage independent	n 14	0.331
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 12	0.364
domain commodities · horizon 1d · stage revised	n 14	0.333
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 12	0.363
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category momentum · stage prior	n 2	0.511
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category momentum · stage independent	n 2	0.130
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category momentum · stage revised	n 2	0.154
domain commodities · horizon 3d · stage prior	n 1	0.303
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 1	0.303
domain commodities · horizon 3d · stage independent	n 1	0.578
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 1	0.578
domain commodities · horizon 3d · stage revised	n 1	0.533
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 1	0.533
domain commodities · horizon 4d · stage prior	n 1	0.360
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 1	0.360
domain commodities · horizon 4d · stage independent	n 1	0.292
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 1	0.292
domain commodities · horizon 4d · stage revised	n 1	0.270
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 1	0.270

Public Markets Analyst analyst

Objective: connect fundamentals and macro to listed securities. Sector exposures, earnings sensitivity, factor loadings (energy beta, rates, dollar), cross-asset confirmation or divergence, liquidity and flows. You ask which listed instrument actually carries the exposure the thesis needs, and how much of the move is already explained by the market factor.

markets · commodities

Scored: 15
Brier: 0.285
Accuracy: 40%
Weight: 0.95

By segment · 45

domain all · horizon all · stage independent	n 15	0.299
domain commodities · horizon all · stage independent	n 15	0.299
domain commodities · horizon 2d · stage independent	n 3	0.333
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 2	0.337
domain all · horizon all · stage revised	n 15	0.285
domain commodities · horizon all · stage revised	n 15	0.285
domain commodities · horizon 2d · stage revised	n 3	0.329
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 2	0.331
domain all · horizon all · stage prior	n 14	0.341
domain commodities · horizon all · stage prior	n 14	0.341
domain commodities · horizon 3d · stage prior	n 4	0.265
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 4	0.265
domain commodities · horizon 3d · stage independent	n 4	0.429
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 4	0.429
domain commodities · horizon 3d · stage revised	n 4	0.375
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 4	0.375
domain commodities · horizon 2d · stage prior	n 2	0.260
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category momentum · stage prior	n 1	0.270
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category momentum · stage independent	n 1	0.325
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category momentum · stage revised	n 1	0.325
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 1	0.250
domain commodities · horizon 1d · stage prior	n 5	0.434
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 4	0.530
domain commodities · horizon 1d · stage independent	n 5	0.231
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 4	0.252
domain commodities · horizon 1d · stage revised	n 5	0.221
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 4	0.272
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category momentum · stage prior	n 1	0.048
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category momentum · stage independent	n 1	0.144
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category momentum · stage revised	n 1	0.017
domain commodities · horizon 5d · stage prior	n 1	0.563
domain commodities · horizon 5d · signal_category momentum · stage prior	n 1	0.563
domain commodities · horizon 5d · stage independent	n 1	0.160
domain commodities · horizon 5d · signal_category momentum · stage independent	n 1	0.160
domain commodities · horizon 5d · stage revised	n 1	0.160
domain commodities · horizon 5d · signal_category momentum · stage revised	n 1	0.160
domain commodities · horizon 4d · stage prior	n 2	0.231
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 1	0.160
domain commodities · horizon 4d · stage independent	n 2	0.231
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 1	0.250
domain commodities · horizon 4d · stage revised	n 2	0.265
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 1	0.250
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category momentum · stage prior	n 1	0.303
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category momentum · stage independent	n 1	0.212
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category momentum · stage revised	n 1	0.281

Crypto Analyst analyst

Objective: read the derivatives and flow structure of crypto markets. Funding rates, open interest changes, leverage build-ups and flushes, basis, spot vs. perp divergence, exchange flows. You know that funding and OI are regime indicators, not directional signals by themselves; you look for crowded positioning that resolves violently. You state the regime (trend / range / deleveraging) before the direction.

crypto

Scored: —
Brier: —
Accuracy: —
Weight: 1.00

Sports Analyst analyst

Objective: translate sporting information into win probabilities and compare them to betting-market prices. Injuries (who, position, replacement quality), rest and schedule, home advantage, form vs. noise, and how fast lines move after news. You care about the *market reaction function*: which news the line absorbs in minutes and which it underreacts to. A 60% team is only interesting if the market says 52%. Discipline: state the prediction cutoff (kickoff) and use nothing after it. Team series live under NFL-<ABBR> (margin, win, is_home, points_for/against, espn_spread, espn_total, kalshi_win_prob, injuries_out, injuries_questionable). Estimate team effects with partial pooling and report uncertainty, not point claims. Model dispersion as well as the mean. Beat a simple baseline (home field + the market line) out of sample before believing any feature. Injury counts are a proxy for who is missing; say so.

sports

Scored: 11
Brier: 0.264
Accuracy: 55%
Weight: 0.98

By segment · 27

domain all · horizon all · stage prior	n 11	0.239
domain sports · horizon all · stage prior	n 11	0.239
domain sports · horizon 1d · stage prior	n 3	0.224
domain sports · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 3	0.224
domain all · horizon all · stage independent	n 11	0.264
domain sports · horizon all · stage independent	n 11	0.264
domain sports · horizon 1d · stage independent	n 3	0.228
domain sports · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 3	0.228
domain all · horizon all · stage revised	n 11	0.264
domain sports · horizon all · stage revised	n 11	0.264
domain sports · horizon 1d · stage revised	n 3	0.228
domain sports · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 3	0.228
domain sports · horizon 4d · stage prior	n 6	0.224
domain sports · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 5	0.202
domain sports · horizon 4d · stage independent	n 6	0.248
domain sports · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 5	0.235
domain sports · horizon 4d · stage revised	n 6	0.248
domain sports · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 5	0.235
domain sports · horizon 4d · signal_category injur · stage prior	n 1	0.336
domain sports · horizon 4d · signal_category injur · stage independent	n 1	0.314
domain sports · horizon 4d · signal_category injur · stage revised	n 1	0.314
domain sports · horizon 5d · stage prior	n 2	0.303
domain sports · horizon 5d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 2	0.303
domain sports · horizon 5d · stage independent	n 2	0.365
domain sports · horizon 5d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 2	0.365
domain sports · horizon 5d · stage revised	n 2	0.365
domain sports · horizon 5d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 2	0.365

Quantitative Researcher analyst

Objective: turn the question into explicit tests and run them. Define the dependent variable and horizon, the signal, the null, the sample. Request regressions with HAC errors, event studies, conditional probabilities against base rates, walk-forward validation, and backtests with delay and costs. Report effect sizes with intervals. You never argue from narrative; if the test is not significant out of sample, you say the edge is not demonstrated, whatever the story.

markets · commodities · weather · crypto · sports

Scored: 34
Brier: 0.278
Accuracy: 44%
Weight: 0.94

By segment · 66

domain all · horizon all · stage independent	n 34	0.269
domain commodities · horizon all · stage independent	n 23	0.290
domain commodities · horizon 2d · stage independent	n 2	0.271
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 2	0.271
domain all · horizon all · stage revised	n 34	0.278
domain commodities · horizon all · stage revised	n 23	0.290
domain commodities · horizon 2d · stage revised	n 2	0.292
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 2	0.292
domain all · horizon all · stage prior	n 33	0.287
domain sports · horizon all · stage prior	n 11	0.241
domain sports · horizon 1d · stage prior	n 3	0.240
domain sports · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 2	0.272
domain sports · horizon all · stage independent	n 11	0.225
domain sports · horizon 1d · stage independent	n 3	0.242
domain sports · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 2	0.288
domain sports · horizon all · stage revised	n 11	0.254
domain sports · horizon 1d · stage revised	n 3	0.242
domain sports · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 2	0.288
domain sports · horizon 4d · stage prior	n 6	0.220
domain sports · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 5	0.225
domain sports · horizon 4d · stage independent	n 6	0.239
domain sports · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 5	0.248
domain sports · horizon 4d · stage revised	n 6	0.239
domain sports · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 5	0.248
domain commodities · horizon all · stage prior	n 22	0.310
domain commodities · horizon 1d · stage prior	n 16	0.311
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 15	0.313
domain commodities · horizon 1d · stage independent	n 16	0.280
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 15	0.256
domain commodities · horizon 1d · stage revised	n 16	0.279
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 15	0.253
domain sports · horizon 5d · stage prior	n 2	0.308
domain sports · horizon 5d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 2	0.308
domain sports · horizon 5d · stage independent	n 2	0.157
domain sports · horizon 5d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 2	0.157
domain sports · horizon 5d · stage revised	n 2	0.315
domain sports · horizon 5d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 2	0.315
domain commodities · horizon 3d · stage prior	n 2	0.303
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category momentum · stage prior	n 2	0.303
domain commodities · horizon 3d · stage independent	n 2	0.442
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category momentum · stage independent	n 2	0.442
domain commodities · horizon 3d · stage revised	n 2	0.451
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category momentum · stage revised	n 2	0.451
domain commodities · horizon 2d · stage prior	n 1	0.303
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 1	0.303
domain sports · horizon 4d · signal_category injur · stage prior	n 1	0.194
domain sports · horizon 4d · signal_category injur · stage independent	n 1	0.194
domain sports · horizon 4d · signal_category injur · stage revised	n 1	0.194
domain commodities · horizon 5d · stage prior	n 1	0.490
domain commodities · horizon 5d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 1	0.490
domain commodities · horizon 5d · stage independent	n 1	0.194
domain commodities · horizon 5d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 1	0.194
domain commodities · horizon 5d · stage revised	n 1	0.194
domain commodities · horizon 5d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 1	0.194
domain commodities · horizon 4d · stage prior	n 2	0.223
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category momentum · stage prior	n 2	0.223
domain commodities · horizon 4d · stage independent	n 2	0.286
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category momentum · stage independent	n 2	0.286
domain commodities · horizon 4d · stage revised	n 2	0.271
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category momentum · stage revised	n 2	0.271
domain sports · horizon 1d · signal_category injur · stage prior	n 1	0.176
domain sports · horizon 1d · signal_category injur · stage independent	n 1	0.148
domain sports · horizon 1d · signal_category injur · stage revised	n 1	0.148
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category momentum · stage prior	n 1	0.281
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category momentum · stage independent	n 1	0.640
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category momentum · stage revised	n 1	0.656

Historical Analog Analyst analyst

Objective: find comparable past regimes and say why each comparison holds or fails. For every analog: what was similar (the mechanism, the starting conditions, positioning), what was different (structure, policy, liquidity, the absence of the current driver), and what happened. You are the memory of the committee and the enemy of "this time is different" and of "this always happens" alike. Ask the data for the base rate of the outcome across all comparable windows, not just the famous ones.

markets · commodities · weather · crypto

Scored: 13
Brier: 0.321
Accuracy: 46%
Weight: 0.91

By segment · 27

domain all · horizon all · stage prior	n 13	0.309
domain commodities · horizon all · stage prior	n 13	0.309
domain commodities · horizon 1d · stage prior	n 11	0.314
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 9	0.286
domain all · horizon all · stage independent	n 13	0.333
domain commodities · horizon all · stage independent	n 13	0.333
domain commodities · horizon 1d · stage independent	n 11	0.349
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 9	0.365
domain all · horizon all · stage revised	n 13	0.321
domain commodities · horizon all · stage revised	n 13	0.321
domain commodities · horizon 1d · stage revised	n 11	0.342
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 9	0.342
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category momentum · stage prior	n 2	0.437
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category momentum · stage independent	n 2	0.275
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category momentum · stage revised	n 2	0.341
domain commodities · horizon 5d · stage prior	n 1	0.423
domain commodities · horizon 5d · signal_category momentum · stage prior	n 1	0.423
domain commodities · horizon 5d · stage independent	n 1	0.160
domain commodities · horizon 5d · signal_category momentum · stage independent	n 1	0.160
domain commodities · horizon 5d · stage revised	n 1	0.160
domain commodities · horizon 5d · signal_category momentum · stage revised	n 1	0.160
domain commodities · horizon 4d · stage prior	n 1	0.144
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 1	0.144
domain commodities · horizon 4d · stage independent	n 1	0.336
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 1	0.336
domain commodities · horizon 4d · stage revised	n 1	0.250
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 1	0.250

Market Positioning Analyst analyst

Objective: estimate what is already in the price. If the fundamental view is right, is there still a tradeable edge? Look at recent price action relative to the news, implied probabilities where a market exists, open interest and funding as crowding proxies, the reaction to the last similar catalyst. Your output is an estimate of the market-implied probability and a crowding score. You are the reason a correct thesis can still be a bad trade.

markets · commodities · crypto · sports

Scored: 37
Brier: 0.295
Accuracy: 41%
Weight: 0.90

By segment · 77

domain all · horizon all · stage independent	n 37	0.298
domain commodities · horizon all · stage independent	n 26	0.311
domain commodities · horizon 2d · stage independent	n 3	0.330
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category momentum · stage independent	n 1	0.270
domain all · horizon all · stage revised	n 37	0.295
domain commodities · horizon all · stage revised	n 26	0.305
domain commodities · horizon 2d · stage revised	n 3	0.330
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category momentum · stage revised	n 1	0.270
domain all · horizon all · stage prior	n 36	0.291
domain commodities · horizon all · stage prior	n 25	0.310
domain commodities · horizon 3d · stage prior	n 4	0.281
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 2	0.213
domain commodities · horizon 3d · stage independent	n 4	0.391
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 2	0.326
domain commodities · horizon 3d · stage revised	n 4	0.370
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 2	0.391
domain commodities · horizon 2d · stage prior	n 2	0.276
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 1	0.250
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 1	0.360
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 1	0.360
domain sports · horizon all · stage prior	n 11	0.249
domain sports · horizon 1d · stage prior	n 3	0.237
domain sports · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 3	0.237
domain sports · horizon all · stage independent	n 11	0.268
domain sports · horizon 1d · stage independent	n 3	0.233
domain sports · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 3	0.233
domain sports · horizon all · stage revised	n 11	0.271
domain sports · horizon 1d · stage revised	n 3	0.233
domain sports · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 3	0.233
domain sports · horizon 4d · stage prior	n 6	0.236
domain sports · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 6	0.236
domain sports · horizon 4d · stage independent	n 6	0.239
domain sports · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 6	0.239
domain sports · horizon 4d · stage revised	n 6	0.239
domain sports · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 6	0.239
domain commodities · horizon 1d · stage prior	n 16	0.338
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 10	0.305
domain commodities · horizon 1d · stage independent	n 16	0.305
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 10	0.366
domain commodities · horizon 1d · stage revised	n 16	0.296
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 10	0.351
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category momentum · stage prior	n 5	0.470
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category momentum · stage independent	n 5	0.198
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category momentum · stage revised	n 5	0.203
domain sports · horizon 5d · stage prior	n 2	0.308
domain sports · horizon 5d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 2	0.308
domain sports · horizon 5d · stage independent	n 2	0.407
domain sports · horizon 5d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 2	0.407
domain sports · horizon 5d · stage revised	n 2	0.422
domain sports · horizon 5d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 2	0.422
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category open interest · stage prior	n 1	0.014
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category open interest · stage independent	n 1	0.221
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category open interest · stage revised	n 1	0.221
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category weather · stage prior	n 1	0.250
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category weather · stage independent	n 1	0.303
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category weather · stage revised	n 1	0.303
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category momentum · stage prior	n 1	0.449
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category momentum · stage independent	n 1	0.608
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category momentum · stage revised	n 1	0.397
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category positioning · stage prior	n 1	0.303
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category positioning · stage independent	n 1	0.360
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category positioning · stage revised	n 1	0.360
domain commodities · horizon 5d · stage prior	n 1	0.202
domain commodities · horizon 5d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 1	0.202
domain commodities · horizon 5d · stage independent	n 1	0.185
domain commodities · horizon 5d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 1	0.185
domain commodities · horizon 5d · stage revised	n 1	0.185
domain commodities · horizon 5d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 1	0.185
domain commodities · horizon 4d · stage prior	n 2	0.226
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 1	0.202
domain commodities · horizon 4d · stage independent	n 2	0.235
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 1	0.230
domain commodities · horizon 4d · stage revised	n 2	0.265
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 1	0.260
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category momentum · stage prior	n 1	0.250
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category momentum · stage independent	n 1	0.240
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category momentum · stage revised	n 1	0.270

Causal Skeptic reviewer

Objective: break the causal story. For every proposed relationship, search for confounders (what drives both), reverse causality (does price move the fundamental?), selection (why this window, this entity?), leakage (does the signal contain the outcome?), regime dependence (did it only work in one period?), and alternative explanations. Request the tests that would expose these: regime splits, influence, placebo/random-date event studies, controls. You do not need to be right about the alternative; you need to show it was not ruled out.

markets · commodities · weather · crypto · sports

Scored: 37
Brier: 0.277
Accuracy: 38%
Weight: 0.94

By segment · 69

domain all · horizon all · stage independent	n 37	0.276
domain commodities · horizon all · stage independent	n 26	0.288
domain commodities · horizon 2d · stage independent	n 3	0.288
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 2	0.276
domain all · horizon all · stage revised	n 37	0.277
domain commodities · horizon all · stage revised	n 26	0.287
domain commodities · horizon 2d · stage revised	n 3	0.299
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 2	0.292
domain all · horizon all · stage prior	n 36	0.269
domain commodities · horizon all · stage prior	n 25	0.285
domain commodities · horizon 3d · stage prior	n 4	0.285
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 3	0.268
domain commodities · horizon 3d · stage independent	n 4	0.360
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 3	0.331
domain commodities · horizon 3d · stage revised	n 4	0.364
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 3	0.358
domain commodities · horizon 2d · stage prior	n 2	0.276
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category momentum · stage prior	n 1	0.250
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category momentum · stage independent	n 1	0.314
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category momentum · stage revised	n 1	0.314
domain sports · horizon all · stage prior	n 11	0.234
domain sports · horizon 1d · stage prior	n 3	0.197
domain sports · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 3	0.197
domain sports · horizon all · stage independent	n 11	0.246
domain sports · horizon 1d · stage independent	n 3	0.220
domain sports · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 3	0.220
domain sports · horizon all · stage revised	n 11	0.254
domain sports · horizon 1d · stage revised	n 3	0.220
domain sports · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 3	0.220
domain sports · horizon 4d · stage prior	n 6	0.236
domain sports · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 5	0.216
domain sports · horizon 4d · stage independent	n 6	0.241
domain sports · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 5	0.222
domain sports · horizon 4d · stage revised	n 6	0.241
domain sports · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 5	0.222
domain commodities · horizon 1d · stage prior	n 16	0.291
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 15	0.294
domain commodities · horizon 1d · stage independent	n 16	0.277
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 15	0.295
domain commodities · horizon 1d · stage revised	n 16	0.274
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 15	0.291
domain sports · horizon 4d · signal_category weather · stage prior	n 1	0.336
domain sports · horizon 4d · signal_category weather · stage independent	n 1	0.336
domain sports · horizon 4d · signal_category weather · stage revised	n 1	0.336
domain sports · horizon 5d · stage prior	n 2	0.281
domain sports · horizon 5d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 2	0.281
domain sports · horizon 5d · stage independent	n 2	0.303
domain sports · horizon 5d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 2	0.303
domain sports · horizon 5d · stage revised	n 2	0.346
domain sports · horizon 5d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 2	0.346
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category weather · stage prior	n 1	0.336
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category weather · stage independent	n 1	0.449
domain commodities · horizon 3d · signal_category weather · stage revised	n 1	0.384
domain commodities · horizon 2d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 1	0.303
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category momentum · stage prior	n 1	0.250
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category momentum · stage independent	n 1	0.014
domain commodities · horizon 1d · signal_category momentum · stage revised	n 1	0.014
domain commodities · horizon 5d · stage prior	n 1	0.303
domain commodities · horizon 5d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 1	0.303
domain commodities · horizon 5d · stage independent	n 1	0.176
domain commodities · horizon 5d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 1	0.176
domain commodities · horizon 5d · stage revised	n 1	0.176
domain commodities · horizon 5d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 1	0.176
domain commodities · horizon 4d · stage prior	n 2	0.231
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage prior	n 2	0.231
domain commodities · horizon 4d · stage independent	n 2	0.286
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage independent	n 2	0.286
domain commodities · horizon 4d · stage revised	n 2	0.276
domain commodities · horizon 4d · signal_category other · stage revised	n 2	0.276

Statistical Reviewer reviewer

Objective: act as a hostile peer reviewer. You receive tests and the automated checklist and you reject weak analysis. N, null, pre-registration, number of tests and correction, effect size, interval, out-of-sample, delay, costs, look-ahead, survivorship, revisions, regime stability, autocorrelation, single-observation influence, confounders. Significance is not economic significance. Your output is a grade and the specific missing test that would change it.

markets · commodities · weather · crypto · sports

Scored: —
Brier: —
Accuracy: —
Weight: 1.00

Risk Officer risk

Objective: assume the thesis is correct and explain how the trade still loses money. Path risk (right eventually, stopped out first), timing, carry, basis between the thesis variable and the instrument, liquidity in a stress, correlation with what the book already holds, gap risk around the catalyst, the tail scenario. Produce concrete ways-to-lose with probabilities and loss sizes, a recommended maximum size, and kill conditions. You never opine on whether the thesis is right; that is not your job.

markets · commodities · crypto · sports

Scored: —
Brier: —
Accuracy: —
Weight: 1.00

Portfolio Manager pm

Objective: synthesize conflicting evidence without averaging opinions. Weight each analyst by historical calibration in this segment, domain relevance, the quality of the data they used, whether their evidence is independent of others' (two analysts citing the same series are one line of evidence), regime applicability, and model uncertainty. Name the top disagreement and say how you resolved it. Then decide whether the view is tradeable and propose an expression, or say explicitly why not. Split your conclusion into observed / inferred / modeled / predicted / uncertain.

markets · commodities · weather · crypto · sports

Scored: —
Brier: —
Accuracy: —
Weight: 1.00

The tools · deterministic, every seat gets the same ones

describe: Descriptive statistics of a series: mean, sd, skew, kurtosis, quantiles, autocorrelation.
correlation: Pearson and Spearman correlation between two aligned series with bootstrap CI.
rolling_correlation: Rolling correlation; reports mean, min, max, share of windows with the same sign as the full-sample corr.
regression: OLS with HAC (Newey-West) standard errors. y ~ X. Reports betas, t, p, R², Durbin-Watson, influence.
multivariate_regression: Multivariate OLS convenience: same as regression() with a DataFrame of regressors and named controls.
event_study: Event study: mean cumulative return over [0, window] after each event date vs. bootstrap of random dates.
conditional_probability: P(outcome | signal condition) vs base rate P(outcome). Signal and outcome are boolean series aligned on index.
hypothesis_test: Compare outcome distribution when signal is on vs off: Welch t, Mann-Whitney, mean difference with CI.
bootstrap_ci: Bootstrap CI for a statistic of one series (mean by default).
stationarity: Augmented Dickey-Fuller stationarity test.
regime_split: Split the sample into regimes (by a regime series or calendar halves) and re-estimate a correlation in each.
sensitivity: Sensitivity of an effect to a parameter: re-run a callable over a grid and report the range.
influence: Leave-one-out influence: does dropping any single observation flip the sign or kill significance?
walk_forward: Walk-forward validation of a threshold rule: fit the threshold (and its direction) on train, score the excess of the rule's OOS mean over the fold's unconditional mean, with an embargo of `embargo` rows between train and test.
cross_validation: K-fold cross-validated R² of a linear model y ~ X (time-ordered folds, no shuffling).
backtest: Backtest a signal rule with execution delay and transaction costs. Long when signal>threshold.
transaction_cost_adjustment: Transaction-cost adjustment: how much of a gross edge survives at several cost levels.
monte_carlo: Monte Carlo of a position's P&L: bootstrap historical returns over the horizon; report VaR/ES/prob of loss.
factor_decomposition: Factor decomposition: regress asset returns on factor returns; report loadings and idiosyncratic share.
multiple_testing: Multiple-testing correction over a family of p-values: Benjamini-Hochberg q-values (or Bonferroni). Reports how many survive at 0.05 / 0.10.