The dataset
424,069 observations from 11 keyless public sources. Every observation carries four timestamps: when it happened, when it was publishedPublished time When a number became knowable to anyone. Different from when it happened (event time) and when the desk fetched it (ingested time). Futures closes publish at the session close; NOAA observed degree days about 30 hours after the day. glossary, when the desk ingested it, and its revisionRevision A later version of the same data point. The old print stays; the new one is knowable only from the moment it arrived. Reads as of an earlier date still see the old print. glossary number. Every read filters on the published time, so a test as ofAs-of (point in time) Reading the data as it looked on a given date: only observations published by then, and the version that was current then. Backtests that read today's cleaned data are reading the future. glossary a date sees only what was knowable then, which is how look-aheadLook-ahead bias Using information that was not available at the time. A close stamped at midnight is 'known' 17 hours before the market closed; a seasonal average that includes next year leaks the future. Every read here filters on the time a number was published. glossary is made impossible rather than discouraged. A changed print becomes a new revision; the old one stays.
| Source | What | Series | Observations | Coverage | Mean lag (h)Mean publication lag On average, how many hours after an event its number became knowable. Zero for a price at its own close; about 30 for observed degree days; days for weekly reports. glossary | Published whenPublished time When a number became knowable to anyone. Different from when it happened (event time) and when the desk fetched it (ingested time). Futures closes publish at the session close; NOAA observed degree days about 30 hours after the day. glossary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOAA CPC forecasts | cooling and heating degree-day forecasts for 15 states, every issue kept as its own revision | 30 | 210,939 | 2023-12-31 → 2026-10-19 | -67.6 | published at the issue time; forecast revisions are first-class |
| Kalshi | hourly implied probabilities for NFL game markets and ladders | 215 | 105,754 | 2026-08-24 → 2026-10-14 | 58.3 | at the candle |
| NOAA CPC observed | observed degree days for the same states | 30 | 30,480 | 2023-12-31 → 2026-10-11 | 30.0 | published about 30 hours after the day |
| Weather stations | temperature, precipitation and wind for Corn Belt and Gulf Coast sites | 28 | 29,207 | 2023-12-31 → 2026-10-14 | 119.2 | published five days after the day, conservatively |
| Prices | daily closes for futures (WTI, Henry Hub, RBOB, corn, soybeans, wheat), energy equities and ETFs, BTC and ETH | 28 | 21,361 | 2023-12-31 → 2026-10-14 | 3.1 | published at the session close (17:00 ET futures, 16:30 ET equities, 00:30 UTC next day crypto); rows ingested before 2026-10-02 carry the older midnight+1h stamp |
| Scores and lines | NFL and MLB results, per-team margins, pre-game spreads and totals | 237 | 13,584 | 2024-06-26 → 2026-10-19 | 6.0 | results four hours after kickoff (synthetic for backfilled seasons); lines when fetched |
| Injury reports | per-player status and per-team counts | 67 | 7,292 | 2026-02-09 → 2026-10-14 | 4.7 | when fetched; the earlier backdated stamp was survivorship-biased and is gone |
| CFTC positioning | Commitments of Traders for five futures | 15 | 2,175 | 2024-01-01 → 2026-10-05 | 92.0 | Tuesday positions published Friday 20:30 UTC |
| Crypto spot | BTC, ETH, SOL price and volume | 9 | 2,140 | 2025-09-18 → 2026-10-14 | 1.5 | at the print |
| Crypto derivatives | funding rates and open interest | 4 | 1,135 | 2026-03-23 → 2026-10-14 | 9.3 | funding at its timestamp; open interest one day later |
| Hurricanes | active Atlantic storm maximum wind | 1 | 2 | 2026-09-18 → 2026-09-22 | 0.0 | at the advisory |
What the miner may test against what
Weather features may be tested against commodities, equities and games; commodity features against commodities and equities; crypto against crypto; market features against commodities, equities and crypto; game features against games. Physically absurd pairs are never run, which keeps the multiple-testing burden honest. Raw third-party series are not redistributed; only derived figures are published.