Tailfifty desk
424,069 observationssnapshot 2026-10-15Registry

Markets, today

Every open Kalshi market the desk can speak to, the price right now, and which library insights fire on the same underlying as of the last knowable print. A signalSignal A library insight whose feature is currently in the tail that mattered historically, pointing up or down over its measured horizon. It is a measured relationship in play tonight, not a forecast of what will happen. glossary is a measured relationship in the tail that matters tonight, not a forecast. When nothing fires, the honest answer is "no view." Dotted words explain themselves on hover; the whole set is in statistics for dummies.

as of Oct 14, 10:33 PM ET · 9 commodity markets · 6 game markets · 2 signals firing

WTI and Henry Hub ladders

MarketKalshiLast printSettlesLibrary signalsSignal A library insight whose feature is currently in the tail that mattered historically, pointing up or down over its measured horizon. It is a measured relationship in play tonight, not a forecast of what will happen. glossaryCommitteeLog-odds pool How the committee number is made: each seat's probability is turned into log-odds, averaged with calibration weights, and turned back. Deterministic. The portfolio manager explains it; it does not pick it. glossary
ETH price on Oct 14, 2026 at 11pm EDT? — $2,350 or above
KXETHD-26OCT1423-T2349.99 · spread 0.03
48%2,420
2026-10-15
Oct 14, 11:00 PM ETnone firing · no usable insight on this underlying—
BTC price on Oct 14, 2026 at 11pm EDT? — $80,800 or above
KXBTCD-26OCT1423-T80799.99 · spread 0.01
47%81,604
2026-10-15
Oct 14, 11:00 PM ETnone firing · no usable insight on this underlying—
Oil Price (WTI) on Oct 15, 2026? — Above $92.99
KXWTI-26OCT1514-T92.99 · spread 0.01
48%95.09
2026-10-14
Oct 15, 2:30 PM ETnone firing · no usable insight on this underlying—
Natural gas price on Oct 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? — Above $3.570
KXNATGASD-26OCT1517-T3.570 · spread 0.04
50%3.20
2026-10-14
Oct 15, 5:00 PM ETnone firing · no usable insight on this underlying—
BTC price on Oct 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT? — $80,750 or above
KXBTCD-26OCT1517-T80749.99 · spread 0.01
51%81,604
2026-10-15
Oct 15, 5:00 PM ETnone firing · no usable insight on this underlying—
ETH price on Oct 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT? — $2,340 or above
KXETHD-26OCT1517-T2339.99 · spread 0.02
52%2,420
2026-10-15
Oct 15, 5:00 PM ETnone firing · no usable insight on this underlying—
Oil Price (WTI) on Oct 16, 2026? — Above $92.99
KXWTI-26OCT1614-T92.99 · spread 0.04
49%95.09
2026-10-14
Oct 16, 2:30 PM ETnone firing · no usable insight on this underlying—
BTC price on Oct 16, 2026 at 5pm EDT? — $81,000 or above
KXBTCD-26OCT1617-T80999.99 · spread 0.01
48%81,604
2026-10-15
Oct 16, 5:00 PM ETnone firing · no usable insight on this underlying—
ETH price on Oct 16, 2026 at 5pm EDT? — $2,340 or above
KXETHD-26OCT1617-T2339.99 · spread 0.02
54%2,420
2026-10-15
Oct 16, 5:00 PM ETnone firing · no usable insight on this underlying—

NFL, this week

GameKalshiKickoffLibrary signalsCommittee
Will the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Carolina Panthers at home on October 18, 2026?
KXNFLGAME-26OCT18CARPHI-PHI
51%Oct 18, 1:00 PM ETgame insights are result-vs-line only once enough lines exist; none usable yet—
Will the Philadelphia Eagles cover +1.5 against the Carolina Panthers on October 18, 2026?
KXNFLGAME-26OCT18CARPHI-PHI
—Oct 18, 1:00 PM ETgame insights are result-vs-line only once enough lines exist; none usable yet—
Will the New York Giants beat the New Orleans Saints at home on October 18, 2026?
KXNFLGAME-26OCT18NONYG-NYG
49%Oct 18, 1:00 PM ETgame insights are result-vs-line only once enough lines exist; none usable yet—
Will the New York Giants cover +1.5 against the New Orleans Saints on October 18, 2026?
KXNFLGAME-26OCT18NONYG-NYG
—Oct 18, 1:00 PM ETgame insights are result-vs-line only once enough lines exist; none usable yet—
Will the Atlanta Falcons beat the Chicago Bears at home on October 18, 2026?
KXNFLGAME-26OCT18CHIATL-ATL
49%Oct 18, 1:00 PM ETgame insights are result-vs-line only once enough lines exist; none usable yet—
Will the Atlanta Falcons cover +1.5 against the Chicago Bears on October 18, 2026?
KXNFLGAME-26OCT18CHIATL-ATL
—Oct 18, 1:00 PM ETgame insights are result-vs-line only once enough lines exist; none usable yet—

No Kalshi market: signals only

Corn
  • ↑ upIowa temp predicts corn 21d forward21dHorizon How far ahead the target looks. A 21-day horizon means the return from today to 21 trading days from now. glossary · featureFeature The thing that might predict: a weather anomaly, a positioning z-score, a funding rate, a team's recent form. Transformed and lagged so it was knowable before the target. glossary at the 12th pctilePercentile Where today's value sits in its own history: the 96th percentile means it has been this high only 4% of the time. Signals fire in the top or bottom 30%. glossary · OOS excessOOS excess The average target return when the rule fired, minus the average over the whole test period. Measuring against zero lets a rule 'win' just because prices drifted up or home teams win more often. glossary +1.03% · promisingGrade robust: significant after correction, out of sample, costs, stable, holdout agrees. promising: significant with out-of-sample excess, holdout not decisive. weak: screened but failed out of sample or the holdout. failed: was promising, no longer. Retired rows stay visible. glossary · holdoutHoldout The newest quarter of every sample, set aside before any screening or fitting. The development rule is applied to it once, at the end. Passing means the relationship kept its sign and beat the holdout's own average. It is the closest thing to a fresh test the data allows. glossary pass
  • ↑ upTemperature predicts corn 21d return21dHorizon How far ahead the target looks. A 21-day horizon means the return from today to 21 trading days from now. glossary · featureFeature The thing that might predict: a weather anomaly, a positioning z-score, a funding rate, a team's recent form. Transformed and lagged so it was knowable before the target. glossary at the 4th pctilePercentile Where today's value sits in its own history: the 96th percentile means it has been this high only 4% of the time. Signals fire in the top or bottom 30%. glossary · OOS excessOOS excess The average target return when the rule fired, minus the average over the whole test period. Measuring against zero lets a rule 'win' just because prices drifted up or home teams win more often. glossary +0.83% · promisingGrade robust: significant after correction, out of sample, costs, stable, holdout agrees. promising: significant with out-of-sample excess, holdout not decisive. weak: screened but failed out of sample or the holdout. failed: was promising, no longer. Retired rows stay visible. glossary · holdoutHoldout The newest quarter of every sample, set aside before any screening or fitting. The development rule is applied to it once, at the end. Passing means the relationship kept its sign and beat the holdout's own average. It is the closest thing to a fresh test the data allows. glossary pass
  • ↑ upNE Cornbelt temp signals corn price21dHorizon How far ahead the target looks. A 21-day horizon means the return from today to 21 trading days from now. glossary · featureFeature The thing that might predict: a weather anomaly, a positioning z-score, a funding rate, a team's recent form. Transformed and lagged so it was knowable before the target. glossary at the 9th pctilePercentile Where today's value sits in its own history: the 96th percentile means it has been this high only 4% of the time. Signals fire in the top or bottom 30%. glossary · OOS excessOOS excess The average target return when the rule fired, minus the average over the whole test period. Measuring against zero lets a rule 'win' just because prices drifted up or home teams win more often. glossary +0.88% · promisingGrade robust: significant after correction, out of sample, costs, stable, holdout agrees. promising: significant with out-of-sample excess, holdout not decisive. weak: screened but failed out of sample or the holdout. failed: was promising, no longer. Retired rows stay visible. glossary · holdoutHoldout The newest quarter of every sample, set aside before any screening or fitting. The development rule is applied to it once, at the end. Passing means the relationship kept its sign and beat the holdout's own average. It is the closest thing to a fresh test the data allows. glossary pass

Every library signal, firing or not

  • ↑ upIowa temp predicts corn 21d forward21dHorizon How far ahead the target looks. A 21-day horizon means the return from today to 21 trading days from now. glossary · featureFeature The thing that might predict: a weather anomaly, a positioning z-score, a funding rate, a team's recent form. Transformed and lagged so it was knowable before the target. glossary at the 12th pctilePercentile Where today's value sits in its own history: the 96th percentile means it has been this high only 4% of the time. Signals fire in the top or bottom 30%. glossary · OOS excessOOS excess The average target return when the rule fired, minus the average over the whole test period. Measuring against zero lets a rule 'win' just because prices drifted up or home teams win more often. glossary +1.03% · promisingGrade robust: significant after correction, out of sample, costs, stable, holdout agrees. promising: significant with out-of-sample excess, holdout not decisive. weak: screened but failed out of sample or the holdout. failed: was promising, no longer. Retired rows stay visible. glossary · holdoutHoldout The newest quarter of every sample, set aside before any screening or fitting. The development rule is applied to it once, at the end. Passing means the relationship kept its sign and beat the holdout's own average. It is the closest thing to a fresh test the data allows. glossary pass
  • ↑ upTemperature predicts corn 21d return21dHorizon How far ahead the target looks. A 21-day horizon means the return from today to 21 trading days from now. glossary · featureFeature The thing that might predict: a weather anomaly, a positioning z-score, a funding rate, a team's recent form. Transformed and lagged so it was knowable before the target. glossary at the 4th pctilePercentile Where today's value sits in its own history: the 96th percentile means it has been this high only 4% of the time. Signals fire in the top or bottom 30%. glossary · OOS excessOOS excess The average target return when the rule fired, minus the average over the whole test period. Measuring against zero lets a rule 'win' just because prices drifted up or home teams win more often. glossary +0.83% · promisingGrade robust: significant after correction, out of sample, costs, stable, holdout agrees. promising: significant with out-of-sample excess, holdout not decisive. weak: screened but failed out of sample or the holdout. failed: was promising, no longer. Retired rows stay visible. glossary · holdoutHoldout The newest quarter of every sample, set aside before any screening or fitting. The development rule is applied to it once, at the end. Passing means the relationship kept its sign and beat the holdout's own average. It is the closest thing to a fresh test the data allows. glossary pass
  • ↑ upNE Cornbelt temp signals corn price21dHorizon How far ahead the target looks. A 21-day horizon means the return from today to 21 trading days from now. glossary · featureFeature The thing that might predict: a weather anomaly, a positioning z-score, a funding rate, a team's recent form. Transformed and lagged so it was knowable before the target. glossary at the 9th pctilePercentile Where today's value sits in its own history: the 96th percentile means it has been this high only 4% of the time. Signals fire in the top or bottom 30%. glossary · OOS excessOOS excess The average target return when the rule fired, minus the average over the whole test period. Measuring against zero lets a rule 'win' just because prices drifted up or home teams win more often. glossary +0.88% · promisingGrade robust: significant after correction, out of sample, costs, stable, holdout agrees. promising: significant with out-of-sample excess, holdout not decisive. weak: screened but failed out of sample or the holdout. failed: was promising, no longer. Retired rows stay visible. glossary · holdoutHoldout The newest quarter of every sample, set aside before any screening or fitting. The development rule is applied to it once, at the end. Passing means the relationship kept its sign and beat the holdout's own average. It is the closest thing to a fresh test the data allows. glossary pass
  • ↓ downDallas wind gust predicts oil 21d21dHorizon How far ahead the target looks. A 21-day horizon means the return from today to 21 trading days from now. glossary · featureFeature The thing that might predict: a weather anomaly, a positioning z-score, a funding rate, a team's recent form. Transformed and lagged so it was knowable before the target. glossary at the 71th pctilePercentile Where today's value sits in its own history: the 96th percentile means it has been this high only 4% of the time. Signals fire in the top or bottom 30%. glossary · OOS excessOOS excess The average target return when the rule fired, minus the average over the whole test period. Measuring against zero lets a rule 'win' just because prices drifted up or home teams win more often. glossary +1.41% · weakGrade robust: significant after correction, out of sample, costs, stable, holdout agrees. promising: significant with out-of-sample excess, holdout not decisive. weak: screened but failed out of sample or the holdout. failed: was promising, no longer. Retired rows stay visible. glossary · holdoutHoldout The newest quarter of every sample, set aside before any screening or fitting. The development rule is applied to it once, at the end. Passing means the relationship kept its sign and beat the holdout's own average. It is the closest thing to a fresh test the data allows. glossary fail
  • ↑ upHouston mean temp predicts oil 21d21dHorizon How far ahead the target looks. A 21-day horizon means the return from today to 21 trading days from now. glossary · featureFeature The thing that might predict: a weather anomaly, a positioning z-score, a funding rate, a team's recent form. Transformed and lagged so it was knowable before the target. glossary at the 11th pctilePercentile Where today's value sits in its own history: the 96th percentile means it has been this high only 4% of the time. Signals fire in the top or bottom 30%. glossary · OOS excessOOS excess The average target return when the rule fired, minus the average over the whole test period. Measuring against zero lets a rule 'win' just because prices drifted up or home teams win more often. glossary −1.08% · weakGrade robust: significant after correction, out of sample, costs, stable, holdout agrees. promising: significant with out-of-sample excess, holdout not decisive. weak: screened but failed out of sample or the holdout. failed: was promising, no longer. Retired rows stay visible. glossary · holdoutHoldout The newest quarter of every sample, set aside before any screening or fitting. The development rule is applied to it once, at the end. Passing means the relationship kept its sign and beat the holdout's own average. It is the closest thing to a fresh test the data allows. glossary fail · feature 4d stale
  • ↑ upDallas mean temp predicts oil 21d21dHorizon How far ahead the target looks. A 21-day horizon means the return from today to 21 trading days from now. glossary · featureFeature The thing that might predict: a weather anomaly, a positioning z-score, a funding rate, a team's recent form. Transformed and lagged so it was knowable before the target. glossary at the 17th pctilePercentile Where today's value sits in its own history: the 96th percentile means it has been this high only 4% of the time. Signals fire in the top or bottom 30%. glossary · OOS excessOOS excess The average target return when the rule fired, minus the average over the whole test period. Measuring against zero lets a rule 'win' just because prices drifted up or home teams win more often. glossary −0.60% · weakGrade robust: significant after correction, out of sample, costs, stable, holdout agrees. promising: significant with out-of-sample excess, holdout not decisive. weak: screened but failed out of sample or the holdout. failed: was promising, no longer. Retired rows stay visible. glossary · holdoutHoldout The newest quarter of every sample, set aside before any screening or fitting. The development rule is applied to it once, at the end. Passing means the relationship kept its sign and beat the holdout's own average. It is the closest thing to a fresh test the data allows. glossary fail · feature 4d stale
  • ↑ upHouston max temp predicts oil 21d21dHorizon How far ahead the target looks. A 21-day horizon means the return from today to 21 trading days from now. glossary · featureFeature The thing that might predict: a weather anomaly, a positioning z-score, a funding rate, a team's recent form. Transformed and lagged so it was knowable before the target. glossary at the 22th pctilePercentile Where today's value sits in its own history: the 96th percentile means it has been this high only 4% of the time. Signals fire in the top or bottom 30%. glossary · OOS excessOOS excess The average target return when the rule fired, minus the average over the whole test period. Measuring against zero lets a rule 'win' just because prices drifted up or home teams win more often. glossary −0.40% · weakGrade robust: significant after correction, out of sample, costs, stable, holdout agrees. promising: significant with out-of-sample excess, holdout not decisive. weak: screened but failed out of sample or the holdout. failed: was promising, no longer. Retired rows stay visible. glossary · holdoutHoldout The newest quarter of every sample, set aside before any screening or fitting. The development rule is applied to it once, at the end. Passing means the relationship kept its sign and beat the holdout's own average. It is the closest thing to a fresh test the data allows. glossary pass · feature 4d stale
  • ↑ upPort Arthur temp predicts oil 21d21dHorizon How far ahead the target looks. A 21-day horizon means the return from today to 21 trading days from now. glossary · featureFeature The thing that might predict: a weather anomaly, a positioning z-score, a funding rate, a team's recent form. Transformed and lagged so it was knowable before the target. glossary at the 8th pctilePercentile Where today's value sits in its own history: the 96th percentile means it has been this high only 4% of the time. Signals fire in the top or bottom 30%. glossary · OOS excessOOS excess The average target return when the rule fired, minus the average over the whole test period. Measuring against zero lets a rule 'win' just because prices drifted up or home teams win more often. glossary −0.04% · weakGrade robust: significant after correction, out of sample, costs, stable, holdout agrees. promising: significant with out-of-sample excess, holdout not decisive. weak: screened but failed out of sample or the holdout. failed: was promising, no longer. Retired rows stay visible. glossary · holdoutHoldout The newest quarter of every sample, set aside before any screening or fitting. The development rule is applied to it once, at the end. Passing means the relationship kept its sign and beat the holdout's own average. It is the closest thing to a fresh test the data allows. glossary pass · feature 4d stale

A signal fires when its feature sits in the top or bottom 30% of its own trailing distribution and the insight is graded promising or robust. Weak and failed rows are listed quiet. The library · The committee track