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424,069 observations
snapshot 2026-10-15
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Hypotheses
Written down before the test, then tested, then graded. Failures stay on the record.
failed
A trailing-90-day z-score spike in NJ's forecasted heating-degree-days (HDD) in mid-September (anomalously cold forecast for the season, z=+4.77) predicts a positive forward 5-day log return in Henry Hub natural gas futures, controlling for concurrent NJ cooling-demand forecast and broad-market moves.
2026-09-18 · 6 tests
Signal memory
· how each signal has tested over time
failed
NJ.hdd_forecast + NJ.cdd_forecast + SPY.close → HENRY_HUB.close 5d
0 of 1 robust