Will WTI oil on Nov 3, 2026 close above $102.99?
The seats worked this question alone, then argued it out. Code ran every test and computed the number. How the desk works
Committee—PM-stated number (before 2026-10-02)
Market at the time49%
Resolves—
Judged by Kalshi KXWTI-26NOV0314-T102.99 settlement at 2026-11-03: If the daily settlement price for WTI crude oil(December 2026 contract) on November 03, 2026 is above 102.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Synthesis
The seats
No committee members.
Claims and evidence
The debate
No debate was recorded for this question.
Assumptions
No assumptions recorded.
Simulated trade
The portfolio manager proposed no paper trade.
Forecasts
| Seat | Stage | P | Base | Resolves | Outcome | Brier |
|---|
Reasoning graph
Every observation, test, claim, objection and forecast, as a graph
observationmemorytestassumptionclaimcounterargumentopinionforecasttrade
Click a node. Every conclusion traces back to observations and tests.