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424,069 observationssnapshot 2026-10-15Registry

Commodities · 21d · asked 2026-10-14

Will WTI oil on Election Day, November 3, 2026 close at $100 or above?

Oil Price (WTI) on Election Day (November 3, 2026)? — $100 or above

The seats worked this question alone, then argued it out. Code ran every test and computed the number. How the desk works

Committee—PM-stated number (before 2026-10-02)
Market at the time25%
Resolves—

Judged by Kalshi KXWTI-26NOV03-T99.99 settlement at 2026-11-03: If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on November 03, 2026 is above $99.99, then the market resolves to Yes.

Synthesis

The seats

Each analyst's own memo, evidence and tests. Open a seat to read it.

No committee members.

Claims and evidence

Observation · seen in the data · 10
Model · a tool computed it · 9
Inference · reasoned from the above · 5
Forecast · what a seat expects · 1
Uncertainty · what a seat does not know · 7

The debate

No debate was recorded for this question.

Assumptions

Untested · 25
  • untested
    d1 series is spot/front-month WTI settle price history (USD/bbl)
    Commodities Analyst
  • untested
    d2 is the daily log/pct return series underlying the bootstrap
    Commodities Analyst
  • untested
    d4/d3 series (implied vol or basis proxy) are not directly interpretable without labels and are treated as weak signals only
    Commodities Analyst
  • untested
    No OPEC+ quota change or geopolitical supply shock between now and Nov 3, 2026 is known to me (information cutoff constraint)
    Commodities Analyst
  • untested
    Kalshi settlement will track the CME WTI front-month settle closely
    Commodities Analyst
  • untested
    d1 is the WTI front-month price series and the last value (94.14, 2026-10-13) is the most recent pre-as_of observation, with no settlement between 10/13 and 10/14 materially changing the base.
    Public Markets Analyst
  • untested
    d2 is the daily return series underlying the Monte Carlo bootstrap in s2, consistent with d1.
    Public Markets Analyst
  • untested
    The Kalshi settlement on Nov 3, 2026 will track the CME WTI front-month settle price without significant basis/roll distortion.
    Public Markets Analyst
  • untested
    s2's bootstrap resampling of 493 days of historical daily returns is a reasonable (though not perfect) proxy for the true forward 21-day return distribution, i.e., returns are approximately stationary (supported by s5 ADF p=1.02e-18 rejecting unit root).
    Public Markets Analyst
  • untested
    d1 is the WTI front-month price series, with last observation 94.14 on 2026-10-13, used as the base price for projecting to Nov 3, 2026
    Quantitative Researcher
  • untested
    d2 is the daily log-return series feeding the bootstrap (s3), and is approximately stationary (autocorr_1=0.013, consistent with weak-form efficiency)
    Quantitative Researcher
  • untested
    The Kalshi settlement price on 2026-11-03 will closely track the modeled WTI front-month series (no basis risk between data feed and Kalshi's settlement source)
    Quantitative Researcher
  • untested
    No material regime change (supply shock, OPEC action, war escalation) between 2026-10-14 and 2026-11-03 beyond what's embedded in the historical return distribution used for the bootstrap
    Quantitative Researcher
  • untested
    d1 is the WTI front-month close series used for Kalshi settlement, or a very close proxy for it.
    Historical Analog Analyst
  • untested
    d4's rising values (0.50→1.04 over the last week) represent a genuine momentum/sentiment signal rather than noise; this is INFERRED, not confirmed by a dedicated correlation test.
    Historical Analog Analyst
  • untested
    d5's inventory decline continues or at least does not reverse sharply before Nov 3; untested beyond Oct 6 data point.
    Historical Analog Analyst
  • untested
    The wind-gust insight (insight:ins_01M3ZV4EM46811213JGQGR) is only weakly informative here given its small effect size and negative live credit (-0.12), so it is downweighted rather than relied upon.
    Historical Analog Analyst
  • untested
    d1 represents the WTI front-month price level series (last obs 94.14 on 2026-10-13).
    Market Positioning Analyst
  • untested
    No direct Kalshi order-book/implied-probability series was provided in DATA, so implied probability must be backed out from price distance-to-strike and historical volatility rather than observed market odds.
    Market Positioning Analyst
  • untested
    d3/d4/d5/d6 series identities (implied vol, inventories, momentum oscillator) are inferred, not confirmed by metadata, so their use is lower-confidence.
    Market Positioning Analyst
  • untested
    21 calendar days ≈ 15 trading days to settlement.
    Market Positioning Analyst
  • untested
    d1 is the WTI front-month price level series (last obs 94.14 on 2026-10-13)
    Causal Skeptic
  • untested
    d2/i1_y represent the empirical distribution of (likely overlapping) 21-trading-day forward WTI returns
    Causal Skeptic
  • untested
    No non-public information about Nov 2026 supply/demand shocks is available as of 2026-10-14
    Causal Skeptic
  • untested
    Kalshi settlement tracks the conventional front-month WTI settle, not a divergent proxy
    Causal Skeptic

Simulated trade

The portfolio manager proposed no paper trade.

Forecasts

SeatStagePBaseResolvesOutcomeBrier

Reasoning graph

Every observation, test, claim, objection and forecast, as a graph
observationmemorytestassumptionclaimcounterargumentopinionforecasttrade
observationWTI.close [level]claim · observation · 98%WTI last settled at 94.14 on 2026-1…opinionCommodities Analystclaim · observation · 95%The price series shows strong short…teststationarity: =Noneclaim · model · 80%The WTI price level series is non-s…testcorrelation: corr=-0.04619846137414…claim · model · 60%Under the empirical 21-day return b…testregime_split: full-sample corr=-0.0…claim · uncertainty · 70%No reliable correlation signal exis…claim · uncertainty · 90%The futures curve shape (contango v…claim · observation · 95%WTI needs a +6.2% move from the las…opinionPublic Markets Analysttestmonte_carlo: expected return=0.0111…claim · model · 60%The required 6.2% threshold return …claim · observation · 85%The most recent 4-day price action …teststationarity: =Noneclaim · model · 55%Price series is mean-reverting/stat…testdescribe: mean=91.72341546779725testcorrelation: corr=0.6017857090741099claim · uncertainty · 30%There is a correlated macro/cross-a…claim · observation · 95%Last observed WTI price is 94.14 (2…opinionQuantitative Researcherteststationarity: =Noneclaim · uncertainty · 80%WTI price level series is non-stati…testmonte_carlo: expected return=0.0254…claim · model · 50%Applying the empirical 21-day boots…claim · observation · 90%Recent 5-day momentum (+5.26% from …counterargumentNo regression here establishes mome…insightDallas wind gust predicts oil 21d […claim · model · 30%The library wind-gust signal (insig…counterargumentOOS hit rate of 0.53 is not disting…testcorrelation: corr=0.4857756612084424claim · uncertainty · 75%Correlation between d1 (price level…claim · observation · 90%WTI is currently priced in the uppe…testdescribe: mean=72.8683772831853opinionHistorical Analog Analystteststationarity: =Noneclaim · model · 60%The price series is non-stationary …testbootstrap_ci: mean=0.02142093014802…observationWTI.volume [level]claim · inference · 40%Declining crude inventories (d5) ar…testcorrelation: corr=0.415930914534937…counterarguments5's correlation significance is ex…memorymemory:analyst_domain_knowledgeclaim · model · 55%The closest comparable historical r…claim · uncertainty · 30%A dedicated wind-gust-based forecas…counterargumentNegative live credit suggests this …claim · observation · 75%WTI has risen sharply over the last…testdescribe: mean=91.72341546779725opinionMarket Positioning Analystclaim · inference · 60%The price series exhibits very high…teststationarity: =Noneclaim · inference · 35%A separate short-horizon indicator …counterargumentIdentity and sign convention of d5 …claim · uncertainty · 90%No Kalshi-specific implied-probabil…claim · model · 50%Given the current level (94.14) is …testinfluence: corr=-0.04619846137414969claim · inference · 82%The two library weather insights (D…testregime_split: full-sample corr=-0.0…testwalk_forward: OOS excess over the u…insightHouston mean temp predicts oil 21d …counterargumentinsight:ins_01M3ZV4EM46811213JGQGR …opinionCausal Skeptictestregression: beta[i1_x]=0.0112065756…claim · inference · 80%The i1_x -> WTI regression (i1_reg)…teststationarity: =Noneclaim · observation · 85%Any level-based relationship betwee…testcorrelation: corr=-0.04619846137414…claim · observation · 85%The correlation between the candida…claim · forecast · 55%Absent a validated causal driver, t…testdescribe: mean=0.021291995225539942counterarguments7 rolling correlation shows full-s…
Click a node. Every conclusion traces back to observations and tests.